Category Archives: markets

2016 In Review

Market Overview Markets turned up the excitement in the fourth quarter, especially with respect to US stocks and domestic interest rates. Stocks were sharply higher after the election with small cap stocks leading the way on a truly impressive run. From November 7th through the end of the year, Vanguard’s Small Cap Value ETF gained 15.05%. […]

Also posted in economy | Comments closed

Now what?

It’s 10:11pm MT on election night and it would appear that despite nearly universal predictions to the contrary, Donald Trump is about to be elected to be the 45th President of the United States.  Markets are in near freefall overnight, and the last figure I saw was DJIA futures off over 800 points, more than […]

Also posted in economy | Comments closed

It’s Working!

Diversified investors finally have something to be happy about. I can tell, because nobody called this quarter to ask (a.k.a. complain) about performance. (Aside – I’m kidding, this practically never happens, my clients are awesome!). What’s the reason?  Here’s year to date performance of various asset classes. Practically every major equity asset class is in-line […]

Posted in markets | Comments closed

3Q 2016 Markets In Review

Market Overview It’s almost hard to remember that a little more than 3 months ago we were all on the edge of our seats with much hand-wringing over the potential fallout of Great Britain voting to leave the EU. But, as these things tend to do, the apparent crisis faded away as the initial over-reaction […]

Also posted in economy, taxes | Comments closed

2Q 2016 Markets in Review

Market Overview Brexit Brexit Brexit Brexit Brexit. Heard enough yet? Yes, on Thursday June 23rd the voters in the UK elected to advise their government to leave the European Union, to the surprised of many. The markets reactive wildly, with big drops in global stocks on Friday and Monday. US stock markets recovered Tuesday and Wednesday, […]

Posted in markets | Comments closed

Permanently bearish commentary

“May you live in interesting times.” The world is a pretty amazing place, moreso today than ever before. We have instant-on, ready access to more information that even existed 100 years ago. Better research, more powerful computing, more data, more robust data and more analysis of that data are all in my pocket (okay, plugged […]

Also posted in economy, investing, Uncategorized | Comments closed

An Average Colorado Winter

Last week it was really nice here in the Denver area. We hit 65F late in the week and the average high was around 50F. The week before that was nice too, getting into the high 50s and average high temps in the high 40s. For me this meant time riding outside in the sunshine, […]

Also posted in investing | Comments closed

4Q 2015 Markets in Review

Market Overview Markets ended the year with a strong fourth quarter but that rally was only enough to bring global stocks back to breakeven for the full calendar year. Small cap US stocks struggled to keep pace with their large cap brethren and emerging markets had another very difficult year, once again posting double-digit losses […]

Also posted in economy, investing | Comments closed

Be Not Afraid

It seems all but certain that this week the Federal Reserve Board will raise the Fed Funds target rate at their December meeting. This has led to much hand wringing, fretting and scheming among many investors who own bonds or bond mutual funds.  I have been asked several times in the last month what we […]

Also posted in economy, investing | Comments closed

My Dangerously Selective Memory

Lately I have been doing something that you might think is a bit odd. I have been forcing myself to re-live and hold on to painful or unpleasant memories. As an investor, I think you should too, and here’s why. Among the many strange things our brains do is something called the “fading affect bias.” […]

Also posted in behavioral finance, investing | Comments closed

What is and isn’t “Risk”

It’s a popular thing to bash on measuring the risk of an investment portfolio with standard deviation, the preferred metric of most academic studies. If you skipped stats in college (congratulations, by the way), standard deviation measures how much movement around an average return you might expect in an asset or portfolio.  So higher standard […]

Also posted in behavioral finance, investing | Comments closed

3Q 2015 In Review

Market Overview Markets across the board were ugly in the third quarter, particularly in September. Diversified investors likely feel there is nowhere to hide, as practically all major asset classes had significant losses for the quarter. Large cap US stocks were down, small cap stocks were down double-digits, emerging markets were crushed, down nearly 20% […]

Also posted in economy, taxes | Comments closed