Monthly Archives: November 2014

How to Write your 2015 Market Forecast

1) Start with your S&P 500 price target. This one is easy, just assume that the market will go up the same as the historical average return, 9-10% (even though this basically never happens in any given calendar year). 2) Find out what everybody else is saying about interest rates. They have to go up, […]

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Yes, I actually read (most of) Tony Robbins’ new book

In case you aren’t obsessively plugged in to the financial web/Twitter/blogosphere, mega self-help guru Tony Robbins has a new book out on finance and investing, “MONEY Master The Game.” (I’m not going to link to Amazon because I don’t want you to buy it.  But we’ll get to that.)  Everyone has been abuzz this week […]

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The Wall of Worry, Illustrated

“The market climbs a wall of worry.”  You’ve heard it hundreds of times.  It sticks around  because it’s true.  And we know it is true, at some level.  But it is always in the moments of true worry that we want to discount this (and all other) time-hardened wisdom. Because we will forget, here’s what […]

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“Bucketing” Your Retirement Income – A Valid Approach?

The single biggest concern for retirees and the financially independent is how to ensure that they do not outlive their assets.  Endless studies have been made on safe withdrawal rates, including those originating the “4% rule.”  Fears over long-term income shortfalls are why insurance salesman pushing complex, expensive “guaranteed lifetime income” variable annuities have so […]

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Precisely Wrong

The best lack all conviction, while the worstAre full of passionate intensity. – William Butler Yeats The Second Coming Everybody loves an expert. Well researched studies have proven that people are inclined to believe pundits who appear the most confident and make the most specific predictions and ignore those who address nuance and probability and complex […]

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